Reacting to the sharp increase in the number of SARS-COV 2 infections, national and local governments across the UK are once again tightening restrictions on daily life. The rules range from limiting the number of people in a group and a 10pm curfew for pubs and restaurants across England, to the temporary closure of such places across the central belt of Scotland. Further restrictions in parts of northern England look likely in the days to come.
Amid mounting restrictions, and in line with our latest revisions to the Eurozone outlook, we downgrade our Q4 call to 2.0% qoq from 2.5% previously.
Due to the statistical overhang from the big rise during Q3, quarterly Q4 growth would be 1.7% qoq even if economic momentum stalled between September and December.
The changes to our H2 calls lower our 2020 annual projection from -9.9% to -10.1%