Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
- Trump: No stimulus package until after election
- Oil falls after Wall Street selloff
- President pushing for $1,200 cheques instead
- Pelosi blasts ‘complete disarray’ at White House
- Tesco’s Covid-19 costs jump…but dividend hiked too
- UK house prices up… German factory output down
Oxford Economics has warned that the US economic recovery could be jolted by the Donald Trump’s decision to break-up stimulus talks.
They had already predicted that growth would slow sharply in October-December, even with some fresh stimulus. Without it, the economy could stall:
Importantly, Q4 growth looks much softer at 4.2% (annualized), even with + fiscal stimulus assumed.
Without stimulus, the economy could reach stall speed in Q4.
Trump’s decision to call off stimulus talks until after the elections could represent a watershed moment. Our baseline assumes the extension of a $1.2tn fiscal package, but the absence of additional aid could knock 1.5ppt off US GDP over the next year: https://t.co/O7ZcVpNRhu pic.twitter.com/8u3CqwshUS
Labour’s shadow business secretary, Ed Miliband, has written a vigorous criticism of the UK government’s efforts to protect the economy.
He warns that Rishi Sunak’s ‘misnamed’ jobs support scheme will fail to protect jobs, and help create unemployment misery this winter.
To be clear, this is a million miles from the successful German Kurzarbeit scheme.
It demands employers pay 55% support for 33% of the hours, offers half the level of government support compared with the German scheme and, in fact, gives an incentive to employ one person full-time rather than two part-time.
Related: By deciding which jobs are ‘viable’, Sunak is leaving millions to sink or swim | Ed Miliband